Making My 2011 Emmy Picks

It's time to dust off the tuxedo or find the perfect gown - it's the 2011 Emmy Awards. The awards will be broadcast live from Hollywood on Sunday evening on FOX stations.

Let's look at the major awards, shall we? Ladies first.

Outstanding Leading Actress in a Drama Series

Kyra Sedwick won this award last year for The Closer, and she’s not even nominated this year. The field has Connie Britton (Friday Night Lights), Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife), Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law), Mireille Enos (The Killing), Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: SVU) and Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men).

I like Marguiles, have since ER, but I don’t see her taking the award. The Killing is a new show that has some buzz, however I don’t think it has enough to give Enos the trophy. Elisabeth Moss has had better seasons on Mad Men than Season 4, so I don’t think it’s her time either. Kathy Bates is good in anything she does, but Harry’s Law is not a great show. I can’t give her the win because it’s like picking an MVP on a last place team. That leaves Hargitay and Britton. Hargitay has been up for this award almost every year and has yet to win, sorry Mariska, but I don’t think you will in 2011 either. My pick goes to Connie Britton. Friday Night Lights had its final season this year and, as Tami Taylor, Britton shined on the show.

Outstanding Leading Actress in a Comedy Series

Off the bat, let me say that shows like The Big C and Nurse Jackie have a hard time fitting into the title of a comedy. Many shows these days are hard to categorize – drama with laughs and comedies that lean heavily on the dramatic. Putting Laura Linney (The Big C) and Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie) in this category is almost unfair. Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation), Tina Fey (30 Rock), Martha Plimpton (Raising Hope) and Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly) have a huge uphill climb to try to out-act someone who gets as much drama time to perform as comedy. That being said I think it’s between Linney and Falco. Falco won last year, so let’s spread the wealth and award it to Linney.

Outstanding Leading Actor in a Drama Series

Hugh Laurie (House) and Jon Hamm (Mad Men) always seem to be nominated, but they never win. Timothy Olyphant (Justified) is showing a lot of chops over on FX, but I don’t see the chops being enough to win. Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights) had a great run as Coach Taylor but I think the Emmy voters will spend their love of the show on Connie Britton. That leaves Michael C. Hall (Dexter) and Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire). Dexter had an amazing season two years ago but the current Hollywood darling is Boardwalk Empire. Buscemi won the Golden Globe and SAG Award for his portrayal of Nucky Thompson, and I think he’ll add the Emmy to that list too.

Outstanding Leading Actor in a Comedy Series

I have a lot of respect for Johnny Galecki (Big Bang Theory), Matt LeBlanc (Episodes), Louis C.K. (Louie), and Alec Baldwin (30 Rock) but I don’t see any of them winning over 2010’s winner Jim Parsons (Big Bang Theory). The only thing stopping Parsons from winning back-to-back trophies is the final swan-song season for Steve Carell (The Office).

Carell sent his character of Michael Scott off to Colorado to follow his heart and I believe that touched anyone who watched. I don’t see the Emmy voters overlooking the chance to thank Carell for seven seasons of amazing performances.

Outstanding Drama Series

The Good Wife won’t win. Rabid fans love Friday Night Lights, but I doubt it can beat the HBO shows. Mad Men has won every year it’s been on TV, but I think it’s time to pass the torch. Dexter was great two years ago and didn’t win; I don’t see it winning for a year that wasn’t as great. That gives us the cable powerhouse HBO and Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones.

Game of Thrones is a gory, bloody, explicit show and I don’t see the Emmy voters celebrating that in a world that is still relatively conservative in their TV watching. Many describe Boardwalk Empire as “Bored-walk Empire” for its slow pace, but the dramatic elements, incredible writing and fantastic performances will have it take the prize. At least that’s what I think.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Anyone who doesn't pick Modern Family to win is silly. Glee, Big Bang Theory, The Office, Parks & Recreation and 30 Rock are great, but Hollywood loves every single thing about Modern Family. It's in the bank.

So, how about you guys? Are you rooting for a special show? Think I’m way off the mark? Let’s get the discussion going.

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